How to identify a market cycle bottom

A cycle bottom is the low of a major market cycle — the area from which a lasting recovery begins. Bottoms are hard to call from price alone because the final flush often looks like every other dip. What sets a true bottom apart is confluence: valuation, momentum, and (for crypto) on-chain metrics all hit historical extremes together. CycleBottom turns that idea into a single weighted score.

The scoring model

Each tracked asset has a set of indicators, and each indicator carries a weight. When an indicator’s condition is true on a given day, its weight is added to the day’s aggregate score. When the total reaches the asset’s threshold, a cycle-bottom signal is triggered. Because it is additive, several mild signals can combine into a strong one, and a single noisy indicator can’t trigger a bottom on its own.

Bitcoin & Ethereum indicators

• Below 200-week MA — price under the long-term mean that has marked prior cycle lows.
• MVRV deep — market value far below realized value (holders broadly underwater).
• Hash ribbon recovery — miner capitulation ends and hash rate momentum turns up (BTC).
• Pi Cycle bottom — long/short moving-average configuration seen near major lows.
• Extreme drawdown — decline from the cycle high reaches a historically deep, diminishing band.
• Weekly RSI < 30 — weekly momentum is oversold.
• RSI divergence — price makes a lower low while RSI makes a higher low.
• Puell low — miner revenue depressed versus its yearly average (BTC).
• ETH/BTC ratio low — Ether deeply discounted versus Bitcoin (ETH).
• Volume capitulation — a spike of selling volume typical of exhaustion.

Stock indices

Equity indices use an equity-specific indicator set — below the 200-day SMA, deep price/SMA ratio, oversold weekly RSI, drawdown from all-time high, and golden-cross recovery — calibrated against past bear-market lows such as 2002 and 2009.

See it live

View the current signal for Bitcoin and Ethereum, or learn about the 0–1 risk metric.