Multi-indicator scoring system for identifying cycle bottoms
As of 2026-06-19, Ethereum (ETH) has a cycle-bottom score of 4.5 out of 15, and the signal triggers at 5.5, so the bottom signal is not triggered — Ethereum is not currently in a cycle-bottom zone. The score is 1.0 point(s) below the trigger threshold. Currently active indicators: Below 200W MA, MVRV Deep. Ethereum is down 64.8% from its cycle high, with a weekly RSI of 32.7. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Known Bottom | Known Price | Detected Date | Detected Price | Lead/Lag | Price Err | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 bottom | $83 | 2018-12-14 | $83 | 1d early | +0.2% | EXACT |
| 2022 bottom | $880 | 2022-06-18 | $994 | EXACT | +12.9% | EXACT |
| # | Start | End | Low Date | Low Price | Peak Score | Cycle Bottom? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2018-08-01 | 2019-04-10 | 2018-12-14 | $83 | 12.5 | YES |
| 2 | 2019-11-22 | 2019-11-25 | 2019-11-24 | $140 | 5.5 | - |
| 3 | 2020-01-14 | 2020-01-14 | 2020-01-25 | $160 | 5.5 | - |
| 4 | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-13 | 2020-03-12 | $110 | 5.5 | YES |
| 5 | 2022-06-16 | 2022-07-14 | 2022-06-18 | $994 | 8.0 | YES |
| 6 | 2022-11-09 | 2022-11-22 | 2022-11-09 | $1,100 | 6.0 | - |
The detector uses a two-pass algorithm to pinpoint the exact day of each Ethereum macro cycle bottom.
8 on-chain and technical indicators are evaluated daily. Each indicator is weighted; the sum forms a composite score (max 15.0).
| Indicator | Weight | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Below 200W MA | 2.0 | Price < 200-week moving average |
| MVRV Deep | 2.5 | Price < 365d VWAP x 0.85 |
| ETH/BTC Ratio | 2.0 | ETH/BTC 30d MA < 200d MA x 0.85 |
| Pi Cycle Bot. | 2.0 | 111DMA < 350DMA x 0.471 |
| Drawdown (dynamic) | 2.5 | Drawdown exceeds cycle-adjusted threshold |
| Weekly RSI <30 | 1.5 | Weekly RSI < 30 |
| RSI Divergence | 1.5 | Price new low, RSI higher low |
| Vol. Capit. | 1.0 | Daily vol > 3x 30d avg |
As of 2026-06-19, Ethereum's cycle-bottom signal is NOT triggered. Its bottom score is 4.5 out of 15 and the signal fires at 5.5. Ethereum is not currently in a bottom zone.
Ethereum's cycle-bottom score is 4.5 out of a maximum 15 as of 2026-06-19. The bottom signal triggers when the score reaches 5.5.
As of 2026-06-19, the active Ethereum bottom indicators are: Below 200W MA, MVRV Deep.
The detector combines 8 weighted on-chain and technical indicators (such as price below the 200-week moving average, deep drawdown, extreme weekly RSI, RSI divergence and capitulation signals). Each active indicator adds its weight to an aggregate score; when the score reaches the asset's threshold (5.5 for Ethereum), a cycle bottom is signalled.
| 7 |
| 2025-03-10 |
| 2025-05-07 |
| 2025-04-08 |
| $1,472 |
| 7.5 |
| YES |
| 8 | 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-05 | $1,823 | 5.5 | - |
| 9 | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-06 | $1,569 | 5.5 | Possible |
Contiguous runs of high-score days form zones. Gaps of up to 14 days below threshold are bridged. Within each zone, the day with the lowest price is recorded.
Each cycle produces smaller gains and shallower drawdowns. The detector dynamically adjusts the drawdown threshold per cycle (2.9 pp shallower per cycle).
| Cycle | Max Drawdown | Threshold Used |
|---|---|---|
| C1 | -94.5% | -94.5% |
| C2 | -82.1% | -82.1% |
| C3 (projected) | ? | -79.2% |
If price rallies 100% or more from a zone's low before the next zone starts, they belong to different cycles. Within each cycle, the zone with the absolute lowest price is selected. The minimum-price day in that zone is the detected cycle bottom.