Multi-indicator scoring system for identifying cycle bottoms
| Known Bottom | Known Price | Detected Date | Detected Price | Lead/Lag | Price Err | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 bottom | $83 | 2018-12-14 | $84 | 1d early | +1.6% | EXACT |
| 2022 bottom | $880 | 2022-06-18 | $994 | EXACT | +13.0% | EXACT |
| # | Start | End | Low Date | Low Price | Peak Score | Cycle Bottom? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2018-08-01 | 2019-04-09 | 2018-12-14 | $84 | 12.5 | YES |
| 2 | 2019-08-29 | 2019-08-30 | 2019-08-30 | $169 | 6.5 | - |
| 3 | 2019-09-24 | 2019-09-26 | 2019-09-26 | $166 | 6.5 | - |
| 4 | 2020-01-14 | 2020-01-14 | 2020-01-25 | $161 | 5.5 | YES |
| 5 | 2022-06-16 | 2022-07-14 | 2022-06-18 | $994 | 8.0 | YES |
| 6 | 2022-11-21 | 2022-11-22 | 2022-11-21 | $1,106 | 6.0 | - |
The detector uses a two-pass algorithm to pinpoint the exact day of each Ethereum macro cycle bottom.
8 on-chain and technical indicators are evaluated daily. Each indicator is weighted; the sum forms a composite score (max 15.0).
| Indicator | Weight | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Below 200W MA | 2.0 | Price < 200-week moving average |
| MVRV Deep | 2.5 | Price < 365d VWAP x 0.85 |
| ETH/BTC Ratio | 2.0 | ETH/BTC 30d MA < 200d MA x 0.85 |
| Pi Cycle Bot. | 2.0 | 111DMA < 350DMA x 0.471 |
| Drawdown (dynamic) | 2.5 | Drawdown exceeds cycle-adjusted threshold |
| Weekly RSI <30 | 1.5 | Weekly RSI < 30 |
| RSI Divergence | 1.5 | Price new low, RSI higher low |
| Vol. Capit. | 1.0 | Daily vol > 3x 30d avg |
| 7 |
| 2025-03-10 |
| 2025-05-07 |
| 2025-04-08 |
| $1,472 |
| 6.5 |
| YES |
Contiguous runs of high-score days form zones. Gaps of up to 14 days below threshold are bridged. Within each zone, the day with the lowest price is recorded.
Each cycle produces smaller gains and shallower drawdowns. The detector dynamically adjusts the drawdown threshold per cycle (2.9 pp shallower per cycle).
| Cycle | Max Drawdown | Threshold Used |
|---|---|---|
| C1 | -94.5% | -94.5% |
| C2 | -82.1% | -82.1% |
| C3 (projected) | ? | -79.2% |
If price doubles from a zone's low before the next zone starts, they belong to different cycles. Within each cycle, the zone with the absolute lowest price is selected. The minimum-price day in that zone is the detected cycle bottom.