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Daily closes across ten equal price bands in every Bitcoin halving cycle
In the current 2024–present halving cycle through 2026-09-01, Bitcoin has spent the most time in Tier 2 ($61,031 to $68,107): 197 observed days, or 22.8% of the cycle's available daily closes. For Year 3, the 3 complete prior cycles averaged the most time in Tier 2 (47.0%); the current cycle also currently peaks in Tier 2 (51.1%, 69 of 135 observed days). Its 9 Tier 1 days (6.7%) versus 0 across 1,095 prior observed Year 3 days are a descriptive outlier, but three cycles are too few to establish a reliable regime change.
Compare the same period across cycles. The mean uses complete pre-current cycles only; dashed lines are partial.
Year 3. 2012–2016 peaks at Tier 2 with 56.2 percent of observed days. 2016–2020 peaks at Tier 4 with 39.2 percent of observed days. 2020–2024 peaks at Tier 2 with 49.9 percent of observed days. 2024–present peaks at Tier 2 with 51.1 percent of observed days. The historical mean across 3 complete prior cycles peaks at Tier 2 with 47.0 percent.
Darker cells represent a larger share of that row's observed days.
| Period | Tier 1$53,954–$61,031 | Tier 2$61,031–$68,107 | Tier 3$68,107–$75,184 | Tier 4$75,184–$82,261 | Tier 5$82,261–$89,337 | Tier 6$89,337–$96,414 | Tier 7$96,414–$103,490 | Tier 8$103,490–$110,567 | Tier 9$110,567–$117,644 | Tier 10$117,644–$124,720 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full cyclePartialApr 20, 2024–Sep 1, 2026 | 758.7% | 19722.8% | 8710.1% | 677.7% | 849.7% | 9210.6% | 768.8% | 9010.4% | 687.9% | 293.4% |
| Year 1Apr 20, 2024–Apr 19, 2025 | 6618.1% | 10227.9% | 328.8% | 123.3% | 4712.9% | 3810.4% | 5615.3% | 123.3% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 2Apr 20, 2025–Apr 19, 2026 | 00.0% | 267.1% | 4712.9% | 61.6% | 3710.1% | 5414.8% | 205.5% | 7821.4% | 6818.6% | 297.9% |
| Year 3PartialApr 20, 2026–Sep 1, 2026 | 96.7% | 6951.1% | 85.9% | 4936.3% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 4UpcomingApr 20, 2027–Apr 19, 2028 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Each cell shows observed days and its share of the period.
| Tier | Price range | Full cycle | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | $53,954 – < $61,031 | 758.7% | 6618.1% | 00.0% | 96.7% | — |
| Tier 2 | $61,031 – < $68,107 | 19722.8% | 10227.9% | 267.1% | 6951.1% | — |
| Tier 3 | $68,107 – < $75,184 | 8710.1% | 328.8% | 4712.9% | 85.9% | — |
| Tier 4 | $75,184 – < $82,261 | 677.7% | 123.3% | 61.6% | 4936.3% | — |
| Tier 5 | $82,261 – < $89,337 | 849.7% | 4712.9% | 3710.1% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 6 | $89,337 – < $96,414 | 9210.6% | 3810.4% | 5414.8% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 7 | $96,414 – < $103,490 | 768.8% | 5615.3% | 205.5% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 8 | $103,490 – < $110,567 | 9010.4% | 123.3% | 7821.4% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 9 | $110,567 – < $117,644 | 687.9% | 00.0% | 6818.6% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 10 | $117,644 – $124,720 | 293.4% | 00.0% | 297.9% | 00.0% | — |
| Observed days | 865 | 365 | 365 | 135 | — | |
Historical time in a price range does not predict future returns. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.