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Drawdown by days since the cycle peak, aligned across every completed cycle
Bitcoin peaked on 2025-10-06 and is 380 days into the current decline, -33.6% below that top (deepest so far -53.1% on 2026-06-30). Across 3 completed cycles the bottom arrived 364–406 days after the peak. That is a description of past cycles, not a forecast.
Each line starts at its own cycle top and ends at that cycle's bottom. The dashed line is the current cycle, which has no confirmed bottom yet. The shaded band is the observed range of the 3 completed cycles — a description of the past, not a projection.
2013–2015 bottomed 406 days after its peak at -86.7 percent. 2017–2018 bottomed 364 days after its peak at -83.3 percent. 2021–2022 bottomed 378 days after its peak at -76.7 percent. The current cycle peaked on 2025-10-06 and is 380 days past its top at -33.6 percent. Across 3 completed cycles the bottom arrived between 364 and 406 days after the peak.
How long each decline took to reach -36% from its peak, and how long it ran in total.
| Cycle | Peak | Bottom | Days to bottom | Depth | Days to -36% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013–2015 | $1,238 | $164.92 | 406 | -86.7% | 3 |
| 2017–2018 | $19,345 | $3,233 | 364 | -83.3% | 31 |
| 2021–2022 | $67,549 | $15,760 | 378 | -76.7% | 59 |
| 2025–presentongoing | $124,720 | not yet | — | -53.1% so far | 117 |
Each cycle has taken roughly twice as long as the last to fall -36% from its peak (3 → 31 → 59 → 117 days). Declines are getting slower and shallower, but three completed cycles are far too few to treat that as a rule.
Elapsed time since a past peak does not predict future prices. Pair this with the Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Finder, which scores price-level and on-chain conditions rather than duration, or read how long Bitcoin bear markets last for the full method. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
Across 3 completed cycles, Bitcoin bottomed 364 to 406 days after its cycle peak — roughly 12 to 13 months. Three cycles is a very small sample, so treat that range as a description of what has happened, not a prediction.
There is no confirmed bottom in the current cycle. Bitcoin is 380 days past its 2025-10-06 peak and -33.6% below it, having reached -53.1% on 2026-06-30. A cycle bottom can only be identified after the fact; the Bear Clock shows where the current decline sits against previous ones rather than calling a low.
The Bear Clock plots drawdown from each cycle peak against days elapsed since that peak, so every cycle starts at day 0 and can be compared directly. Unlike price-level indicators, it measures how far along a decline is in time rather than how cheap the asset looks.
Each cycle has taken about twice as long as the previous one to fall 36% from its peak (3 → 31 → 59 → 117 days). Declines have also grown shallower each cycle. Both trends come from only a handful of observations and could break at any time.