As of 2026-08-03, CycleBottom rates Bitcoin (BTC) at a risk level of 0.212 on a 0–1 scale — Low risk. Bitcoin is trading at $63,101 versus its 365-day moving average of $85,944 (0.73× the average), which places it historically undervalued (accumulation zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Bitcoin Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $41,144 | -34.8% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $45,519 | -27.9% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $50,360 | -20.2% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $55,715 | -11.7% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $61,639 | -2.3% ◄ current |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $68,194 | +8.1% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $75,446 | +19.6% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $83,469 | +32.3% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $92,345 | +46.3% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $102,165 | +61.9% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $113,029 | +79.1% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $125,049 | +98.2% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $138,346 | +119.2% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $153,058 | +142.6% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $169,334 | +168.4% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $187,341 | +196.9% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $207,263 | +228.5% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $229,304 | +263.4% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $253,688 | +302.0% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $280,665 | +344.8% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $310,511 | +392.1% |
This metric estimates Bitcoin's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-08-03, Bitcoin (BTC) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.212 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.212 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Bitcoin is currently historically undervalued (accumulation zone). It trades at 0.73× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Bitcoin's risk level is currently 0.212 (Low risk).