As of 2026-06-19, CycleBottom rates Bitcoin (BTC) at a risk level of 0.176 on a 0–1 scale — Low risk. Bitcoin is trading at $62,853 versus its 365-day moving average of $92,072 (0.68× the average), which places it historically undervalued (accumulation zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Bitcoin Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $43,978 | -30.0% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $48,670 | -22.6% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $53,862 | -14.3% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $59,608 | -5.2% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $65,967 | +5.0% ◄ current |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $73,005 | +16.2% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $80,793 | +28.5% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $89,412 | +42.3% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $98,951 | +57.4% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $109,507 | +74.2% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $121,189 | +92.8% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $134,118 | +113.4% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $148,426 | +136.1% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $164,260 | +161.3% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $181,783 | +189.2% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $201,176 | +220.1% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $222,638 | +254.2% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $246,389 | +292.0% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $272,674 | +333.8% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $301,763 | +380.1% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $333,955 | +431.3% |
This metric estimates Bitcoin's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-06-19, Bitcoin (BTC) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.176 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.176 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Bitcoin is currently historically undervalued (accumulation zone). It trades at 0.68× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Bitcoin's risk level is currently 0.176 (Low risk).