| Risk | Zone | Bitcoin Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $46,574 | -34.0% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $51,575 | -27.0% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $57,113 | -19.1% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $63,246 | -10.4% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $70,037 | -0.8% ◄ current |
| 0.25 | Low risk |
This metric estimates Bitcoin's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395| $77,557 |
| +9.8% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $85,884 | +21.6% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $95,106 | +34.7% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $105,318 | +49.1% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $116,626 | +65.1% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $129,149 | +82.9% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $143,016 | +102.5% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $158,373 | +124.3% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $175,378 | +148.3% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $194,209 | +175.0% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $215,062 | +204.5% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $238,154 | +237.2% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $263,725 | +273.5% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $292,043 | +313.5% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $323,401 | +358.0% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $358,125 | +407.1% |