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As of 2026-10-19, CycleBottom rates Bitcoin (BTC) at a risk level of 0.391 on a 0–1 scale — Moderate-low risk. Bitcoin is trading at $82,339 versus its 365-day moving average of $78,103 (1.05× the average), which places it modestly undervalued. Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Bitcoin Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $37,532 | -54.4% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $41,502 | -49.6% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $45,891 | -44.3% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $50,745 | -38.4% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $56,112 | -31.9% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $62,047 | -24.6% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $68,609 | -16.7% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $75,865 | -7.9% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $83,889 | +1.9% ◄ current |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $92,762 | +12.7% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $102,573 | +24.6% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $113,422 | +37.8% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $125,418 | +52.3% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $138,683 | +68.4% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $153,350 | +86.2% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $169,570 | +105.9% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $187,504 | +127.7% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $207,336 | +151.8% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $229,265 | +178.4% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $253,513 | +207.9% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $280,326 | +240.5% |
This metric estimates Bitcoin's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-10-19, Bitcoin (BTC) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.391 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Moderate-low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.391 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Bitcoin is currently modestly undervalued. It trades at 1.05× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Bitcoin's risk level is currently 0.391 (Moderate-low risk).