| Risk | Zone | Bitcoin Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $45,854 | -42.9% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $50,761 | -36.8% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $56,194 | -30.0% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $62,208 | -22.5% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $68,866 | -14.2% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $76,236 |
This metric estimates Bitcoin's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395| -5.1% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $84,395 | +5.1% ◄ current |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $93,428 | +16.3% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $103,427 | +28.8% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $114,496 | +42.6% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $126,750 | +57.8% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $140,316 | +74.7% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $155,333 | +93.4% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $171,958 | +114.1% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $190,362 | +137.0% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $210,736 | +162.4% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $233,290 | +190.5% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $258,258 | +221.6% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $285,898 | +256.0% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $316,496 | +294.1% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $350,370 | +336.3% |