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As of 2026-10-19, CycleBottom rates Cardano (ADA) at a risk level of 0.355 on a 0–1 scale — Moderate-low risk. Cardano is trading at $0.22 versus its 365-day moving average of $0.29 (0.77× the average), which places it modestly undervalued. Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Cardano Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $0.09 | -60.0% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $0.10 | -54.5% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $0.11 | -48.2% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $0.13 | -41.1% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $0.15 | -33.0% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $0.17 | -23.8% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $0.19 | -13.3% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $0.22 | -1.4% ◄ current |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $0.25 | +12.2% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $0.28 | +27.6% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $0.32 | +45.2% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $0.37 | +65.2% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $0.42 | +87.9% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $0.47 | +113.7% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $0.54 | +143.1% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $0.61 | +176.6% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $0.70 | +214.6% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $0.79 | +257.9% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $0.90 | +307.1% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $1.03 | +363.1% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $1.17 | +426.8% |
This metric estimates Cardano's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-10-19, Cardano (ADA) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.355 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Moderate-low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.355 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Cardano is currently modestly undervalued. It trades at 0.77× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Cardano's risk level is currently 0.355 (Moderate-low risk).