As of 2026-08-04, CycleBottom rates Cardano (ADA) at a risk level of 0.161 on a 0–1 scale — Low risk. Cardano is trading at $0.19 versus its 365-day moving average of $0.41 (0.46× the average), which places it historically undervalued (accumulation zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Cardano Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $0.13 | -34.3% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $0.14 | -25.1% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $0.16 | -14.7% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $0.19 | -2.9% ◄ current |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $0.21 | +10.6% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $0.24 | +26.0% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $0.28 | +43.5% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $0.31 | +63.4% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $0.36 | +86.1% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $0.41 | +111.9% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $0.46 | +141.4% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $0.53 | +174.9% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $0.60 | +213.1% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $0.68 | +256.6% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $0.78 | +306.1% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $0.89 | +362.5% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $1.01 | +426.8% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $1.15 | +499.9% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $1.31 | +583.3% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $1.49 | +678.2% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $1.70 | +786.3% |
This metric estimates Cardano's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-08-04, Cardano (ADA) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.161 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.161 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Cardano is currently historically undervalued (accumulation zone). It trades at 0.46× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Cardano's risk level is currently 0.161 (Low risk).