As of 2026-06-19, CycleBottom rates Cardano (ADA) at a risk level of 0.032 on a 0–1 scale — Extreme low risk. Cardano is trading at $0.16 versus its 365-day moving average of $0.48 (0.34× the average), which places it historically undervalued (accumulation zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Cardano Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $0.15 | -7.8% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $0.17 | +4.9% ◄ current |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $0.20 | +19.3% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $0.22 | +35.7% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $0.25 | +54.3% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $0.29 | +75.6% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $0.33 | +99.7% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $0.37 | +127.2% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $0.42 | +158.4% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $0.48 | +193.9% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $0.55 | +234.3% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $0.62 | +280.3% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $0.71 | +332.6% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $0.81 | +392.1% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $0.92 | +459.7% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $1.04 | +536.7% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $1.19 | +624.3% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $1.35 | +723.8% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $1.54 | +837.1% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $1.75 | +966.0% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $1.99 | +1112.5% |
This metric estimates Cardano's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-06-19, Cardano (ADA) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.032 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Extreme low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.032 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Cardano is currently historically undervalued (accumulation zone). It trades at 0.34× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Cardano's risk level is currently 0.032 (Extreme low risk).