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A price for the bottom, fit through every cycle low — and how wrong that line has been
Bitcoin's power law support line — fit through its 4 cycle lows — stands at $74,044, with the last close at $79,998, 8.0% above it. Over the 2026-10-05 to 2026-11-16 window where previous bottoms landed, the line runs $75,973–$78,840. Held out of its own fit, the line has missed past lows by -32% to +29%, so it is a band rather than a target.
The solid green line is fit through the 4 cycle lows only, and runs 14 months past the last close. The shaded band is the spread of held-out errors, not a confidence interval. The dashed grey line fits every close; cycle peaks sit far above it by a multiple that shrinks every cycle, which is why no ceiling is drawn from it. The purple line is the widely published construction — that same fit scaled by 0.42, the deepest any cycle low has sat below it. It is a lower bound rather than an estimate of the next low, and price has closed under it on 182 of 5,896 days, none since Oct 19, 2015.
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Bitcoin daily closes on a log scale against a power law support line fit through the cycle lows. The line sits at $74,044 today, with price 8.0 percent above it. The shaded band spans -32.2 to plus 28.6 percent, the range of held-out errors when each past low is predicted from the others.
The Bear Clock puts the low 364–406 days after the cycle peak, which is Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 16, 2026. The support line values those dates; the band is what the line has actually been wrong by.
| Date | Support line | Band low | Band high | Envelope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | $75,973 | $51,543 | $97,723 | $60,005 |
| Nov 16, 2026 | $78,840 | $53,488 | $101,411 | $62,232 |
Each low re-predicted from a line fit on the other 3, so no low helps predict itself. This is where the error band comes from — it is measured, not assumed.
| Cycle low | Actual | Predicted | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2011 | $2.05 | $2.96 | -30.8% |
| Jan 14, 2015 | $164.92 | $151.18 | +9.1% |
| Dec 15, 2018 | $3,233 | $2,513 | +28.6% |
| Nov 21, 2022 | $15,760 | $23,230 | -32.2% |
Fit on all 4 lows at once the line looks near perfect (r² 0.9986), but that number is meaningless with 4 points and two parameters. Held out, the misses run -32.2% to +28.6%. The most recent low, Nov 21, 2022, came in 32% below what the earlier lows implied.
The widely published version of the Bitcoin power law scales the full-history fit by a constant, usually quoted as 0.42, rather than fitting the lows directly. That constant is the deepest any cycle low has sat below the fit — 0.418 on this data, set by the Nov 18, 2011 low.
| Line | Today | Answers | Days price closed below |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support (cycle lows) | $74,044 | Where lows typically land | 681 of 5,896 |
| Envelope (fit × 0.42) | $58,505 | How low it could plausibly go | 182 of 5,896 |
The envelope is crossed far less often, and its breaches all sit in the earliest, thinnest years — the last was Oct 19, 2015. Some of that is design rather than accuracy: it is calibrated to sit under the worst low in the record, so being rarely breached is close to guaranteed. It also only holds while it is refit — pinned to the fit as it stood at the 2021 peak, price has since closed below it on 232 days, 22% under at the June 2026 low. Judge the support line by how close it lands to a low and the envelope by whether it is breached; scoring either on the other's test flatters one of them for free.
Every cycle turn as a multiple of the fit through all 5,896 closes. Peaks detach by a multiple that has collapsed every cycle. Lows do not.
| Turn | Date | Price | × the fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 low | Nov 18, 2011 | $2.05 | 0.42× |
| 2013 peak | Dec 4, 2013 | $1,238 | 12.13× |
| 2015 low | Jan 14, 2015 | $164.92 | 0.51× |
| 2017 peak | Dec 16, 2017 | $19,345 | 6.45× |
| 2018 low | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,233 | 0.59× |
| 2021 peak | Nov 8, 2021 | $67,549 | 2.93× |
| 2022 low | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,760 | 0.44× |
| 2025 peak | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,720 | 1.21× |
Peaks came in at 12.13×, 6.45×, 2.93×, 1.21× — a 10-fold spread with no stable value. Lows came in at 0.42×, 0.51×, 0.59×, 0.44×, a spread of 1.4×. A rainbow-style channel draws both edges from the same fit and treats them as equally meaningful; only the lower one has held.
This gives a price but not a date. Pair it with the Bitcoin Bear Clock, which measures how far along the decline is in days, or the Cycle Bottom Finder, which scores present conditions rather than extrapolating a curve. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
The power law support line through Bitcoin's 4 cycle lows sits at $74,044 today and $75,973–$78,840 across the window where past bottoms landed. That is a central estimate, not a floor: held out of its own fit the line has been wrong by -32% to +29%, and the most recent low came in 32% below what the earlier lows implied.
A straight-line fit of log price against log time since the genesis block, so price grows as a power of age rather than exponentially. For Bitcoin the exponent through the cycle lows is 5.74. It has no causal mechanism behind it — it is a curve that has fit the data so far, which is a much weaker claim than a law.
Only as a lower reference, and only loosely — it is not a floor. Cycle peaks sit at 12.13x, 6.45x, 2.93x and 1.21x of the full-history fit — a collapsing multiple with no stable value — while the lows sit at 0.42x, 0.51x, 0.59x and 0.44x. That is why this page draws a support line rather than a rainbow channel: the upper edge of such a channel has never held, and the lower edge is fit to four observations.
Most published versions draw a lower envelope — the fit through all closes scaled by a constant, usually 0.42 — which currently sits at $58,505 here and answers "how low could it plausibly go". This page's main line is fit through the cycle lows themselves, sits at $74,044, and answers "where do lows typically land". Both are drawn on the chart. Levels also differ by vintage: charts pinning the exponent at 5.82 use an all-closes fit as it stood around January 2023, against 5.74 through the lows today.
Yes. The line is fit to the lows, so roughly half of them fall below it by construction — Bitcoin closed under the line drawn by its other lows at 2 of 4 cycle bottoms, by as much as 32%. Treating it as a hard floor is the main way this indicator is misused.