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Gain and elapsed time from each cycle bottom to the peak that followed
Across 3 completed recoveries, Bitcoin took 1050–1067 days to reach its cycle peak from the low — roughly 35 months — returning between 7.9x and 117x. The most recent, 2022–2025, ran 1050 days for 7.9x. Bitcoin is past its most recent peak, so no recovery is in progress. That range describes past cycles and is not a forecast.
Each line starts at a cycle low and ends at the peak that followed. The vertical axis is a multiple of the low on a log scale, so a doubling covers the same distance at every level. The shaded band is the observed range of the 3 recoveries — a description of the past, not a projection.
2015–2017 rose 117.3 times off the bottom over 1067 days. 2018–2021 rose 20.9 times off the bottom over 1059 days. 2022–2025 rose 7.9 times off the bottom over 1050 days. Across 3 recoveries the peak arrived between 1050 and 1067 days after the bottom.
How long each recovery ran, how far it went, and how quickly it doubled off the low.
| Recovery | Bottom | Peak | Days | Gain | Days to 2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015–2017 | $164.92Jan 14, 2015 | $19,345Dec 16, 2017 | 1067 | 117.3x | 292 |
| 2018–2021 | $3,233Dec 15, 2018 | $67,549Nov 8, 2021 | 1059 | 20.9x | 147 |
| 2022–2025 | $15,760Nov 21, 2022 | $124,720Oct 6, 2025 | 1050 | 7.9x | 336 |
All 3 recoveries ran 1050–1067 days — a span of just 17 days. That looks remarkably consistent, but three observations cannot establish that kind of precision: the spread of three numbers says very little about the next one. The size of each recovery has fallen sharply, from 117x to 7.9x.
Past recoveries do not predict future returns. Pair this with the Bitcoin bear clock for the declining half of the cycle. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
Measured from the cycle low to the following peak, Bitcoin's 3 recoveries ran 1067, 1059 and 1050 days — all close to 35 months. The recovery leg has been the most consistent stretch of the cycle, but 3 observations cannot establish that as a rule: the spread of a handful of numbers says little about the next one.
The completed recoveries returned 117x, then 20.9x, then 7.9x from the low. Each cycle has produced a substantially smaller multiple than the one before, so past gains are a poor guide to the size of the next recovery.
No. Bitcoin is below its most recent cycle peak, so it is in the declining half of the cycle and no recovery is running. The bear clock tracks that leg.
Because the recovery begins at the low, not at a calendar date. Anchored to the bottom, Bitcoin's recoveries land within a 17-day span of each other; anchored to the halving, the same peaks scatter far more widely.