As of 2026-08-03, CycleBottom rates US Dollar (USDHKD) at a risk level of 0.736 on a 0–1 scale — High risk. US Dollar is trading at 7.8413 versus its 365-day moving average of 7.8191 (1.00× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | USD/HKD Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 7.6657 | -2.2% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 7.6775 | -2.1% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 7.6894 | -1.9% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 7.7012 | -1.8% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 7.7130 | -1.6% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 7.7249 | -1.5% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 7.7368 | -1.3% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 7.7487 | -1.2% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 7.7606 | -1.0% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 7.7726 | -0.9% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 7.7845 | -0.7% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 7.7965 | -0.6% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 7.8085 | -0.4% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 7.8205 | -0.3% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 7.8326 | -0.1% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 7.8446 | +0.0% ◄ current |
| 0.80 | High risk | 7.8567 | +0.2% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 7.8688 | +0.4% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 7.8809 | +0.5% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 7.8930 | +0.7% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 7.9052 | +0.8% |
As of 2026-08-03, US Dollar (USDHKD) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.736 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "High risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.736 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), US Dollar is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.00× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. US Dollar's risk level is currently 0.736 (High risk).