As of 2026-08-03, CycleBottom rates Solana (SOL) at a risk level of 0.312 on a 0–1 scale — Moderate-low risk. Solana is trading at $72.93 versus its 365-day moving average of $125.23 (0.58× the average), which places it modestly undervalued. Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Solana Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $33.27 | -54.4% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $37.73 | -48.3% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $42.79 | -41.3% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $48.54 | -33.4% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $55.05 | -24.5% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $62.44 | -14.4% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $70.82 | -2.9% ◄ current |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $80.32 | +10.1% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $91.10 | +24.9% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $103.33 | +41.7% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $117.19 | +60.7% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $132.92 | +82.3% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $150.76 | +106.7% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $170.99 | +134.5% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $193.94 | +165.9% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $219.97 | +201.6% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $249.49 | +242.1% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $282.97 | +288.0% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $320.95 | +340.1% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $364.02 | +399.1% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $412.88 | +466.1% |
This metric estimates Solana's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-08-03, Solana (SOL) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.312 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Moderate-low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.312 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Solana is currently modestly undervalued. It trades at 0.58× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Solana's risk level is currently 0.312 (Moderate-low risk).