Frequency profile across cycles

Compare the same period across cycles. The mean uses complete pre-current cycles only; dashed lines are partial.

Days spent in each price tier

Darker cells represent a larger share of that row's observed days.

Period	Tier 1$62.15–$82.12	Tier 2$82.12–$102.09	Tier 3$102.09–$122.07	Tier 4$122.07–$142.04	Tier 5$142.04–$162.01	Tier 6$162.01–$181.98	Tier 7$181.98–$201.95	Tier 8$201.95–$221.93	Tier 9$221.93–$241.90	Tier 10$241.90–$261.87
Full cyclePartialApr 20, 2024–Oct 19, 2026	9710.6%	12013.1%	596.5%	16818.4%	16418.0%	10911.9%	859.3%	505.5%	444.8%	171.9%
Year 1Apr 20, 2024–Apr 19, 2025	00.0%	00.0%	102.7%	9526.0%	9526.0%	5815.9%	4111.2%	246.6%	297.9%	133.6%
Year 2Apr 20, 2025–Apr 19, 2026	174.7%	6016.4%	71.9%	7219.7%	6918.9%	5114.0%	4412.1%	267.1%	154.1%	41.1%
Year 3PartialApr 20, 2026–Oct 19, 2026	8043.7%	6032.8%	4223.0%	10.5%	00.0%	00.0%	00.0%	00.0%	00.0%	00.0%
Year 4UpcomingApr 20, 2027–Apr 19, 2028	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Each cell shows observed days and its share of the period.

Tier	Price range	Full cycle	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4
Tier 1	$62.15 – < $82.12	9710.6%	00.0%	174.7%	8043.7%	—
Tier 2	$82.12 – < $102.09	12013.1%	00.0%	6016.4%	6032.8%	—
Tier 3	$102.09 – < $122.07	596.5%	102.7%	71.9%	4223.0%	—
Tier 4	$122.07 – < $142.04	16818.4%	9526.0%	7219.7%	10.5%	—
Tier 5	$142.04 – < $162.01	16418.0%	9526.0%	6918.9%	00.0%	—
Tier 6	$162.01 – < $181.98	10911.9%	5815.9%	5114.0%	00.0%	—
Tier 7	$181.98 – < $201.95	859.3%	4111.2%	4412.1%	00.0%	—
Tier 8	$201.95 – < $221.93	505.5%	246.6%	267.1%	00.0%	—
Tier 9	$221.93 – < $241.90	444.8%	297.9%	154.1%	00.0%	—
Tier 10	$241.90 – $261.87	171.9%	133.6%	41.1%	00.0%	—
Observed days		913	365	365	183	—

Cycles begin on the Bitcoin halving dates of Nov 28, 2012; Jul 9, 2016; May 11, 2020; and Apr 20, 2024. A completed cycle ends the day before the next halving.
Each cycle's range runs from its lowest daily close to that cycle's own bull-market peak, divided into ten equal linear price ranges. Tier 1 is the lowest range and Tier 10 is the highest.
The ceiling is the cycle's peak rather than the highest close inside the halving window, because a halving window can extend into the next cycle's rally. The 2020 window runs to April 2024 and contains the run-up to that halving, so using the window high would cap the cycle at a price belonging to the following bull market and make it non-comparable with the cycles above it.
Days trading above a cycle's peak are kept in the counts and fall into Tier 10, which therefore reads as “at or above this cycle's peak”.
The same ten ranges are reused for Year 1 through Year 4, making each year directly comparable with the full cycle.
Counts use available UTC daily closes only. Missing dates are not estimated, and partial histories or in-progress years are marked explicitly.
The graph's historical mean is the average tier percentage across complete pre-current cycles for the selected period. Partial cycles are excluded.
The current cycle's minimum, maximum, and tier boundaries are provisional. New extremes can reclassify earlier days.

Historical time in a price range does not predict future returns. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.