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Daily closes across ten equal price bands in every Bitcoin halving cycle
In the current 2024–present halving cycle through 2026-09-01, Chainlink has spent the most time in Tier 3 ($11.60 to $13.81): 187 observed days, or 21.6% of the cycle's available daily closes. For Year 3, the 2 complete prior cycles averaged the most time in Tier 1 (89.3%); the current cycle also currently peaks in Tier 1 (70.4%, 95 of 135 observed days).
Compare the same period across cycles. The mean uses complete pre-current cycles only; dashed lines are partial.
Year 3. 2016–2020 peaks at Tier 1 with 83.0 percent of observed days. 2020–2024 peaks at Tier 1 with 95.6 percent of observed days. 2024–present peaks at Tier 1 with 70.4 percent of observed days. The historical mean across 2 complete prior cycles peaks at Tier 1 with 89.3 percent.
Darker cells represent a larger share of that row's observed days.
| Period | Tier 1$7.19–$9.40 | Tier 2$9.40–$11.60 | Tier 3$11.60–$13.81 | Tier 4$13.81–$16.01 | Tier 5$16.01–$18.22 | Tier 6$18.22–$20.43 | Tier 7$20.43–$22.63 | Tier 8$22.63–$24.84 | Tier 9$24.84–$27.04 | Tier 10$27.04–$29.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full cyclePartialApr 20, 2024–Sep 1, 2026 | 16619.2% | 12714.7% | 18721.6% | 14516.8% | 768.8% | 465.3% | 404.6% | 495.7% | 232.7% | 60.7% |
| Year 1Apr 20, 2024–Apr 19, 2025 | 00.0% | 8122.2% | 8723.8% | 7721.1% | 328.8% | 318.5% | 164.4% | 215.8% | 143.8% | 61.6% |
| Year 2Apr 20, 2025–Apr 19, 2026 | 7119.5% | 113.0% | 9526.0% | 6818.6% | 4412.1% | 154.1% | 246.6% | 287.7% | 92.5% | 00.0% |
| Year 3PartialApr 20, 2026–Sep 1, 2026 | 9570.4% | 3525.9% | 53.7% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 4UpcomingApr 20, 2027–Apr 19, 2028 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Each cell shows observed days and its share of the period.
| Tier | Price range | Full cycle | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | $7.19 – < $9.40 | 16619.2% | 00.0% | 7119.5% | 9570.4% | — |
| Tier 2 | $9.40 – < $11.60 | 12714.7% | 8122.2% | 113.0% | 3525.9% | — |
| Tier 3 | $11.60 – < $13.81 | 18721.6% | 8723.8% | 9526.0% | 53.7% | — |
| Tier 4 | $13.81 – < $16.01 | 14516.8% | 7721.1% | 6818.6% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 5 | $16.01 – < $18.22 | 768.8% | 328.8% | 4412.1% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 6 | $18.22 – < $20.43 | 465.3% | 318.5% | 154.1% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 7 | $20.43 – < $22.63 | 404.6% | 164.4% | 246.6% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 8 | $22.63 – < $24.84 | 495.7% | 215.8% | 287.7% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 9 | $24.84 – < $27.04 | 232.7% | 143.8% | 92.5% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 10 | $27.04 – $29.25 | 60.7% | 61.6% | 00.0% | 00.0% | — |
| Observed days | 865 | 365 | 365 | 135 | — | |
Historical time in a price range does not predict future returns. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.