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Daily closes across ten equal price bands in every Bitcoin halving cycle
In the current 2024–present halving cycle through 2026-09-01, BNB has spent the most time in Tier 2 ($548.87 to $633.18): 378 observed days, or 43.7% of the cycle's available daily closes. For Year 3, the 2 complete prior cycles averaged the most time in Tier 5 (34.4%); the current cycle also currently peaks in Tier 2 (65.9%, 89 of 135 observed days). Its 1 Tier 1 days (0.7%) versus 0 across 730 prior observed Year 3 days are a descriptive outlier, but three cycles are too few to establish a reliable regime change.
Compare the same period across cycles. The mean uses complete pre-current cycles only; dashed lines are partial.
Year 3. 2016–2020 peaks at Tier 3 with 34.8 percent of observed days. 2020–2024 peaks at Tier 5 with 61.4 percent of observed days. 2024–present peaks at Tier 2 with 65.9 percent of observed days. The historical mean across 2 complete prior cycles peaks at Tier 5 with 34.4 percent.
Darker cells represent a larger share of that row's observed days.
| Period | Tier 1$464.57–$548.87 | Tier 2$548.87–$633.18 | Tier 3$633.18–$717.48 | Tier 4$717.48–$801.78 | Tier 5$801.78–$886.09 | Tier 6$886.09–$970.39 | Tier 7$970.39–$1,055 | Tier 8$1,055–$1,139 | Tier 9$1,139–$1,223 | Tier 10$1,223–$1,308 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full cyclePartialApr 20, 2024–Sep 1, 2026 | 536.1% | 37843.7% | 21825.2% | 394.5% | 738.4% | 556.4% | 172.0% | 192.2% | 70.8% | 60.7% |
| Year 1Apr 20, 2024–Apr 19, 2025 | 5214.2% | 21960.0% | 8122.2% | 133.6% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 2Apr 20, 2025–Apr 19, 2026 | 00.0% | 7019.2% | 9325.5% | 256.8% | 7320.0% | 5515.1% | 174.7% | 195.2% | 71.9% | 61.6% |
| Year 3PartialApr 20, 2026–Sep 1, 2026 | 10.7% | 8965.9% | 4432.6% | 10.7% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 4UpcomingApr 20, 2027–Apr 19, 2028 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Each cell shows observed days and its share of the period.
| Tier | Price range | Full cycle | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | $464.57 – < $548.87 | 536.1% | 5214.2% | 00.0% | 10.7% | — |
| Tier 2 | $548.87 – < $633.18 | 37843.7% | 21960.0% | 7019.2% | 8965.9% | — |
| Tier 3 | $633.18 – < $717.48 | 21825.2% | 8122.2% | 9325.5% | 4432.6% | — |
| Tier 4 | $717.48 – < $801.78 | 394.5% | 133.6% | 256.8% | 10.7% | — |
| Tier 5 | $801.78 – < $886.09 | 738.4% | 00.0% | 7320.0% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 6 | $886.09 – < $970.39 | 556.4% | 00.0% | 5515.1% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 7 | $970.39 – < $1,055 | 172.0% | 00.0% | 174.7% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 8 | $1,055 – < $1,139 | 192.2% | 00.0% | 195.2% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 9 | $1,139 – < $1,223 | 70.8% | 00.0% | 71.9% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 10 | $1,223 – $1,308 | 60.7% | 00.0% | 61.6% | 00.0% | — |
| Observed days | 865 | 365 | 365 | 135 | — | |
Historical time in a price range does not predict future returns. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.