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Daily closes across ten equal price bands in every Bitcoin halving cycle
In the current 2024–present halving cycle through 2026-09-01, Ethereum has spent the most time in Tier 2 ($1,808 to $2,144): 142 observed days, or 16.4% of the cycle's available daily closes. For Year 3, the 2 complete prior cycles averaged the most time in Tier 3 (30.1%); the current cycle also currently peaks in Tier 2 (40.0%, 54 of 135 observed days).
Compare the same period across cycles. The mean uses complete pre-current cycles only; dashed lines are partial.
Year 3. 2012–2016 peaks at Tier 1 with 99.1 percent of observed days. 2016–2020 peaks at Tier 2 with 49.0 percent of observed days. 2020–2024 peaks at Tier 3 with 48.5 percent of observed days. 2024–present peaks at Tier 2 with 40.0 percent of observed days. The historical mean across 2 complete prior cycles peaks at Tier 3 with 30.1 percent.
Darker cells represent a larger share of that row's observed days.
| Period | Tier 1$1,472–$1,808 | Tier 2$1,808–$2,144 | Tier 3$2,144–$2,480 | Tier 4$2,480–$2,816 | Tier 5$2,816–$3,152 | Tier 6$3,152–$3,488 | Tier 7$3,488–$3,823 | Tier 8$3,823–$4,159 | Tier 9$4,159–$4,495 | Tier 10$4,495–$4,831 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full cyclePartialApr 20, 2024–Sep 1, 2026 | 677.7% | 14216.4% | 12614.6% | 13415.5% | 11413.2% | 11112.8% | 708.1% | 455.2% | 364.2% | 202.3% |
| Year 1Apr 20, 2024–Apr 19, 2025 | 174.7% | 267.1% | 4913.4% | 7721.1% | 5013.7% | 8423.0% | 4712.9% | 154.1% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 2Apr 20, 2025–Apr 19, 2026 | 102.7% | 6217.0% | 4011.0% | 5314.5% | 6417.5% | 277.4% | 236.3% | 308.2% | 369.9% | 205.5% |
| Year 3PartialApr 20, 2026–Sep 1, 2026 | 4029.6% | 5440.0% | 3727.4% | 43.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 4UpcomingApr 20, 2027–Apr 19, 2028 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Each cell shows observed days and its share of the period.
| Tier | Price range | Full cycle | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | $1,472 – < $1,808 | 677.7% | 174.7% | 102.7% | 4029.6% | — |
| Tier 2 | $1,808 – < $2,144 | 14216.4% | 267.1% | 6217.0% | 5440.0% | — |
| Tier 3 | $2,144 – < $2,480 | 12614.6% | 4913.4% | 4011.0% | 3727.4% | — |
| Tier 4 | $2,480 – < $2,816 | 13415.5% | 7721.1% | 5314.5% | 43.0% | — |
| Tier 5 | $2,816 – < $3,152 | 11413.2% | 5013.7% | 6417.5% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 6 | $3,152 – < $3,488 | 11112.8% | 8423.0% | 277.4% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 7 | $3,488 – < $3,823 | 708.1% | 4712.9% | 236.3% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 8 | $3,823 – < $4,159 | 455.2% | 154.1% | 308.2% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 9 | $4,159 – < $4,495 | 364.2% | 00.0% | 369.9% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 10 | $4,495 – $4,831 | 202.3% | 00.0% | 205.5% | 00.0% | — |
| Observed days | 865 | 365 | 365 | 135 | — | |
Historical time in a price range does not predict future returns. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.