Loading data...
Daily closes across ten equal price bands in every Bitcoin halving cycle
In the current 2024–present halving cycle through 2026-10-19, Ethereum has spent the most time in Tier 4 ($2,480 to $2,816): 166 observed days, or 18.2% of the cycle's available daily closes. For Year 3, the 2 complete prior cycles averaged the most time in Tier 3 (30.1%); the current cycle also currently peaks in Tier 2 (29.5%, 54 of 183 observed days).
Compare the same period across cycles. The mean uses complete pre-current cycles only; dashed lines are partial.
Year 3. 2012–2016 peaks at Tier 1 with 99.1 percent of observed days. 2016–2020 peaks at Tier 2 with 49.0 percent of observed days. 2020–2024 peaks at Tier 3 with 48.5 percent of observed days. 2024–present peaks at Tier 2 with 29.5 percent of observed days. The historical mean across 2 complete prior cycles peaks at Tier 3 with 30.1 percent.
Darker cells represent a larger share of that row's observed days.
| Period | Tier 1$1,472–$1,808 | Tier 2$1,808–$2,144 | Tier 3$2,144–$2,480 | Tier 4$2,480–$2,816 | Tier 5$2,816–$3,152 | Tier 6$3,152–$3,488 | Tier 7$3,488–$3,823 | Tier 8$3,823–$4,159 | Tier 9$4,159–$4,495 | Tier 10$4,495–$4,831 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full cyclePartialApr 20, 2024–Oct 19, 2026 | 677.3% | 14215.6% | 14215.6% | 16618.2% | 11412.5% | 11112.2% | 707.7% | 454.9% | 363.9% | 202.2% |
| Year 1Apr 20, 2024–Apr 19, 2025 | 174.7% | 267.1% | 4913.4% | 7721.1% | 5013.7% | 8423.0% | 4712.9% | 154.1% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 2Apr 20, 2025–Apr 19, 2026 | 102.7% | 6217.0% | 4011.0% | 5314.5% | 6417.5% | 277.4% | 236.3% | 308.2% | 369.9% | 205.5% |
| Year 3PartialApr 20, 2026–Oct 19, 2026 | 4021.9% | 5429.5% | 5329.0% | 3619.7% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% | 00.0% |
| Year 4UpcomingApr 20, 2027–Apr 19, 2028 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Each cell shows observed days and its share of the period.
| Tier | Price range | Full cycle | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | $1,472 – < $1,808 | 677.3% | 174.7% | 102.7% | 4021.9% | — |
| Tier 2 | $1,808 – < $2,144 | 14215.6% | 267.1% | 6217.0% | 5429.5% | — |
| Tier 3 | $2,144 – < $2,480 | 14215.6% | 4913.4% | 4011.0% | 5329.0% | — |
| Tier 4 | $2,480 – < $2,816 | 16618.2% | 7721.1% | 5314.5% | 3619.7% | — |
| Tier 5 | $2,816 – < $3,152 | 11412.5% | 5013.7% | 6417.5% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 6 | $3,152 – < $3,488 | 11112.2% | 8423.0% | 277.4% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 7 | $3,488 – < $3,823 | 707.7% | 4712.9% | 236.3% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 8 | $3,823 – < $4,159 | 454.9% | 154.1% | 308.2% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 9 | $4,159 – < $4,495 | 363.9% | 00.0% | 369.9% | 00.0% | — |
| Tier 10 | $4,495 – $4,831 | 202.2% | 00.0% | 205.5% | 00.0% | — |
| Observed days | 913 | 365 | 365 | 183 | — | |
Historical time in a price range does not predict future returns. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.