As of 2026-08-03, CycleBottom rates Ethereum (ETH) at a risk level of 0.304 on a 0–1 scale — Moderate-low risk. Ethereum is trading at $1,866 versus its 365-day moving average of $2,832 (0.66× the average), which places it modestly undervalued. Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Ethereum Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $916.94 | -50.9% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $1,030 | -44.8% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $1,158 | -37.9% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $1,301 | -30.3% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $1,462 | -21.6% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $1,643 | -11.9% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $1,847 | -1.0% ◄ current |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $2,075 | +11.2% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $2,332 | +25.0% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $2,620 | +40.5% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $2,945 | +57.8% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $3,309 | +77.4% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $3,719 | +99.3% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $4,179 | +124.0% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $4,696 | +151.7% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $5,277 | +182.8% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $5,930 | +217.9% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $6,664 | +257.2% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $7,489 | +301.4% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $8,415 | +351.1% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $9,457 | +406.9% |
This metric estimates Ethereum's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-08-03, Ethereum (ETH) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.304 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Moderate-low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.304 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Ethereum is currently modestly undervalued. It trades at 0.66× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Ethereum's risk level is currently 0.304 (Moderate-low risk).