| Risk | Zone | Ethereum Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $955.69 | -55.6% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $1,076 | -50.0% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $1,211 | -43.7% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $1,363 | -36.7% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $1,534 | -28.7% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $1,726 |
This metric estimates Ethereum's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395| -19.8% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $1,943 | -9.7% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $2,187 | +1.6% ◄ current |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $2,461 | +14.4% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $2,770 | +28.7% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $3,118 | +44.9% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $3,510 | +63.1% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $3,950 | +83.5% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $4,446 | +106.6% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $5,004 | +132.5% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $5,633 | +161.7% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $6,340 | +194.6% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $7,135 | +231.5% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $8,031 | +273.2% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $9,039 | +320.0% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $10,174 | +372.7% |