| Risk | Zone | Ethereum Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $978.93 | -58.6% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $1,101 | -53.4% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $1,239 | -47.6% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $1,394 | -41.0% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $1,568 | -33.7% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $1,764 |
This metric estimates Ethereum's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395| -25.4% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $1,984 | -16.1% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $2,232 | -5.6% ◄ current |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $2,510 | +6.2% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $2,824 | +19.5% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $3,177 | +34.4% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $3,574 | +51.2% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $4,020 | +70.1% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $4,523 | +91.4% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $5,088 | +115.3% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $5,723 | +142.2% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $6,438 | +172.4% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $7,242 | +206.5% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $8,147 | +244.8% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $9,165 | +287.8% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $10,310 | +336.3% |