As of 2026-06-19, CycleBottom rates Ethereum (ETH) at a risk level of 0.245 on a 0–1 scale — Low risk. Ethereum is trading at $1,709 versus its 365-day moving average of $2,987 (0.57× the average), which places it historically undervalued (accumulation zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Ethereum Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $962.25 | -43.7% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $1,082 | -36.7% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $1,216 | -28.8% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $1,368 | -20.0% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $1,538 | -10.0% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $1,729 | +1.2% ◄ current |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $1,944 | +13.8% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $2,186 | +27.9% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $2,457 | +43.8% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $2,763 | +61.7% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $3,106 | +81.8% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $3,493 | +104.4% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $3,927 | +129.8% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $4,415 | +158.4% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $4,964 | +190.5% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $5,581 | +226.7% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $6,275 | +267.3% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $7,055 | +313.0% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $7,933 | +364.3% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $8,919 | +422.0% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $10,028 | +486.9% |
This metric estimates Ethereum's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-06-19, Ethereum (ETH) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.245 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Low risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.245 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Ethereum is currently historically undervalued (accumulation zone). It trades at 0.57× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Ethereum's risk level is currently 0.245 (Low risk).