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As of 2026-10-19, CycleBottom rates Ethereum (ETH) at a risk level of 0.482 on a 0–1 scale — Neutral. Ethereum is trading at $2,421 versus its 365-day moving average of $2,431 (1.00× the average), which places it near fair value. Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Ethereum Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | $793.59 | -67.2% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | $891.02 | -63.2% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | $1,000 | -58.7% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | $1,123 | -53.6% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | $1,261 | -47.9% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | $1,416 | -41.5% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | $1,590 | -34.3% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | $1,785 | -26.3% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | $2,004 | -17.2% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | $2,250 | -7.0% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | $2,526 | +4.4% ◄ current |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | $2,837 | +17.2% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | $3,185 | +31.6% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | $3,576 | +47.7% |
| 0.70 | High risk | $4,015 | +65.9% |
| 0.75 | High risk | $4,508 | +86.2% |
| 0.80 | High risk | $5,061 | +109.1% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | $5,683 | +134.7% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | $6,380 | +163.6% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | $7,163 | +195.9% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | $8,043 | +232.3% |
This metric estimates Ethereum's risk level on a 0–1 scale using logarithmic deviation from its long-term moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns over time.
d = ln(price) - ln(MA)adjusted = d × index^0.395As of 2026-10-19, Ethereum (ETH) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.482 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Neutral". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.482 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Ethereum is currently near fair value. It trades at 1.00× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Ethereum's risk level is currently 0.482 (Neutral).