Multi-indicator scoring system for identifying major index cycle bottoms
| Known Bottom | Known Price | Detected Date | Detected Price | Lead/Lag | Price Err | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 bottom | $1,114 | 2002-10-09 | $1,114 | EXACT | +0.0% | EXACT |
| 2009 bottom | $1,268 | 2009-03-09 | $1,269 | EXACT | +0.1% | EXACT |
| 2020 bottom | $6,631 | 2020-03-23 | $6,861 | EXACT | +3.5% | EXACT |
| # | Start | End | Low Date | Low Price | Peak Score | Cycle Bottom? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1973-04-16 | 1973-07-13 | 1973-07-05 | $99 | 7.0 | - |
| 2 | 1973-11-19 | 1974-01-11 | 1973-12-24 | $89 | 8.5 | - |
| 3 | 1974-02-11 | 1974-02-15 | 1974-02-13 | $90 | 8.0 | - |
| 4 | 1974-04-22 | 1975-01-02 | 1974-10-03 | $55 | 10.0 | YES |
| 5 | 1980-03-27 | 1980-03-27 | 1980-03-27 | $124 | 5.5 | YES |
| 6 | 1981-09-28 | 1981-10-02 | 1981-09-28 | $175 | 5.0 | - |
The detector uses a two-pass algorithm to pinpoint the exact day of each NASDAQ Composite macro cycle bottom.
8 technical indicators are evaluated daily. Each indicator is weighted; the sum forms a composite score (max 14.0).
| Indicator | Weight | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Below 200D SMA | 1.5 | Price < 200-day SMA |
| Drawdown Extreme | 2.5 | Drawdown exceeds cycle-adjusted threshold |
| Weekly RSI < 35 | 2.0 | Weekly RSI < 35 |
| RSI Divergence | 1.5 | Price new low, RSI higher low |
| Price/SMA(200) < 0.85 | 2.0 | Price < 200-day SMA x 0.85 |
| YoY Decline > 25% | 1.5 | 252-day return < -25% |
| Golden Cross Recovery | 1.5 | 50D SMA crosses above 200D SMA after 30+ day death cross |
| Below 365D SMA by 20% | 1.5 | Price < 365-day SMA x 0.80 |
| 7 |
| 1982-06-15 |
| 1982-07-09 |
| 1982-07-08 |
| $167 |
| 5.0 |
| YES |
| 8 | 1984-02-23 | 1984-07-26 | 1984-07-25 | $225 | 6.5 | YES |
| 9 | 1987-10-19 | 1987-12-18 | 1987-10-28 | $292 | 8.5 | YES |
| 10 | 1990-08-06 | 1990-08-24 | 1990-08-23 | $360 | 5.5 | - |
| 11 | 1990-09-20 | 1990-11-09 | 1990-10-16 | $325 | 10.0 | YES |
| 12 | 1998-10-07 | 1998-10-09 | 1998-10-08 | $1,419 | 5.5 | YES |
| 13 | 2000-10-30 | 2001-10-31 | 2001-09-21 | $1,423 | 10.0 | - |
| 14 | 2002-01-18 | 2002-02-25 | 2002-02-21 | $1,716 | 6.0 | - |
| 15 | 2002-06-10 | 2002-10-29 | 2002-10-09 | $1,114 | 12.5 | YES |
| 16 | 2008-03-10 | 2008-03-10 | 2008-03-10 | $2,169 | 5.5 | - |
| 17 | 2008-09-29 | 2009-04-01 | 2009-03-09 | $1,269 | 10.0 | YES |
| 18 | 2018-12-21 | 2018-12-21 | 2018-12-24 | $6,193 | 5.5 | YES |
| 19 | 2020-03-16 | 2020-03-20 | 2020-03-23 | $6,861 | 5.5 | YES |
| 20 | 2022-04-29 | 2022-07-26 | 2022-06-16 | $10,646 | 9.5 | - |
| 21 | 2022-09-22 | 2023-01-19 | 2022-12-28 | $10,213 | 10.5 | YES |
| 22 | 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-08 | $15,268 | 5.5 | YES |
Contiguous runs of high-score days form zones. Gaps of up to 14 days below threshold are bridged. Within each zone, the day with the lowest price is recorded.
Each cycle produces smaller gains and shallower drawdowns. The detector dynamically adjusts the drawdown threshold per cycle (4.0 pp shallower per cycle).
| Cycle | Max Drawdown | Threshold Used |
|---|---|---|
| C1 | -77.9% | -77.9% |
| C2 | -56.2% | -56.2% |
| C3 | -34.0% | -34.0% |
| C4 (projected) | ? | -30.0% |
If price rallies 50% or more from a zone's low before the next zone starts, they belong to different cycles. Within each cycle, the zone with the absolute lowest price is selected. The minimum-price day in that zone is the detected cycle bottom.