As of 2026-06-18, CycleBottom rates NASDAQ Composite (NASDAQ) at a risk level of 0.728 on a 0–1 scale — High risk. NASDAQ Composite is trading at 26,518 versus its 365-day moving average of 21,677 (1.22× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | NASDAQ Composite Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 11,133 | -58.0% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 11,818 | -55.4% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 12,544 | -52.7% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 13,315 | -49.8% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 14,133 | -46.7% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 15,001 | -43.4% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 15,923 | -40.0% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 16,901 | -36.3% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 17,940 | -32.3% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 19,042 | -28.2% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 20,213 | -23.8% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 21,455 | -19.1% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 22,773 | -14.1% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 24,172 | -8.8% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 25,658 | -3.2% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 27,234 | +2.7% ◄ current |
| 0.80 | High risk | 28,908 | +9.0% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 30,684 | +15.7% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 32,570 | +22.8% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 34,571 | +30.4% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 36,696 | +38.4% |
As of 2026-06-18, NASDAQ Composite (NASDAQ) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.728 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "High risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.728 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), NASDAQ Composite is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.22× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. NASDAQ Composite's risk level is currently 0.728 (High risk).