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As of 2026-10-16, CycleBottom rates NASDAQ Composite (NASDAQ) at a risk level of 0.648 on a 0–1 scale — Moderate-high risk. NASDAQ Composite is trading at 26,140 versus its 365-day moving average of 23,505 (1.11× the average), which places it modestly overvalued. Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | NASDAQ Composite Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 12,082 | -53.8% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 12,824 | -50.9% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 13,611 | -47.9% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 14,446 | -44.7% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 15,333 | -41.3% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 16,274 | -37.7% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 17,272 | -33.9% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 18,332 | -29.9% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 19,458 | -25.6% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 20,652 | -21.0% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 21,919 | -16.1% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 23,265 | -11.0% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 24,692 | -5.5% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 26,208 | +0.3% ◄ current |
| 0.70 | High risk | 27,816 | +6.4% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 29,524 | +12.9% |
| 0.80 | High risk | 31,336 | +19.9% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 33,259 | +27.2% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 35,300 | +35.0% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 37,467 | +43.3% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 39,766 | +52.1% |
As of 2026-10-16, NASDAQ Composite (NASDAQ) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.648 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Moderate-high risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.648 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), NASDAQ Composite is currently modestly overvalued. It trades at 1.11× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. NASDAQ Composite's risk level is currently 0.648 (Moderate-high risk).