As of 2026-06-18, CycleBottom rates S&P 500 (SP500) at a risk level of 0.893 on a 0–1 scale — Extreme high risk. S&P 500 is trading at 7,501 versus its 365-day moving average of 6,493 (1.16× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | S&P 500 Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 3,750 | -50.0% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 3,898 | -48.0% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 4,053 | -46.0% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 4,213 | -43.8% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 4,379 | -41.6% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 4,553 | -39.3% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 4,733 | -36.9% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 4,920 | -34.4% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 5,115 | -31.8% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 5,317 | -29.1% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 5,527 | -26.3% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 5,746 | -23.4% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 5,973 | -20.4% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 6,209 | -17.2% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 6,455 | -13.9% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 6,710 | -10.5% |
| 0.80 | High risk | 6,976 | -7.0% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 7,252 | -3.3% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 7,539 | +0.5% ◄ current |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 7,837 | +4.5% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 8,147 | +8.6% |
As of 2026-06-18, S&P 500 (SP500) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.893 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Extreme high risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.893 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), S&P 500 is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.16× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. S&P 500's risk level is currently 0.893 (Extreme high risk).