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As of 2026-10-16, CycleBottom rates S&P 500 (SP500) at a risk level of 0.838 on a 0–1 scale — High risk. S&P 500 is trading at 7,659 versus its 365-day moving average of 6,921 (1.11× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | S&P 500 Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 4,000 | -47.8% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 4,158 | -45.7% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 4,322 | -43.6% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 4,493 | -41.3% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 4,670 | -39.0% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 4,855 | -36.6% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 5,046 | -34.1% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 5,246 | -31.5% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 5,453 | -28.8% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 5,668 | -26.0% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 5,892 | -23.1% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 6,125 | -20.0% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 6,367 | -16.9% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 6,619 | -13.6% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 6,880 | -10.2% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 7,152 | -6.6% |
| 0.80 | High risk | 7,435 | -2.9% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 7,728 | +0.9% ◄ current |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 8,034 | +4.9% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 8,351 | +9.0% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 8,681 | +13.3% |
As of 2026-10-16, S&P 500 (SP500) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.838 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "High risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.838 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), S&P 500 is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.11× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. S&P 500's risk level is currently 0.838 (High risk).