As of 2026-07-31, CycleBottom rates S&P 500 (SP500) at a risk level of 0.869 on a 0–1 scale — Extreme high risk. S&P 500 is trading at 7,490 versus its 365-day moving average of 6,607 (1.13× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | S&P 500 Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 3,816 | -49.0% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 3,967 | -47.0% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 4,124 | -44.9% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 4,287 | -42.8% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 4,456 | -40.5% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 4,633 | -38.1% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 4,816 | -35.7% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 5,006 | -33.2% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 5,204 | -30.5% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 5,410 | -27.8% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 5,624 | -24.9% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 5,846 | -21.9% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 6,077 | -18.9% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 6,318 | -15.6% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 6,567 | -12.3% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 6,827 | -8.8% |
| 0.80 | High risk | 7,097 | -5.2% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 7,378 | -1.5% ◄ current |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 7,669 | +2.4% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 7,973 | +6.4% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 8,288 | +10.7% |
As of 2026-07-31, S&P 500 (SP500) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.869 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Extreme high risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.869 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), S&P 500 is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.13× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. S&P 500's risk level is currently 0.869 (Extreme high risk).