As of 2026-07-31, CycleBottom rates Dow Jones (DJIA) at a risk level of 0.859 on a 0–1 scale — Extreme high risk. Dow Jones is trading at 52,485 versus its 365-day moving average of 46,537 (1.13× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Dow Jones Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 29,070 | -44.6% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 30,088 | -42.7% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 31,141 | -40.7% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 32,231 | -38.6% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 33,359 | -36.4% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 34,527 | -34.2% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 35,736 | -31.9% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 36,987 | -29.5% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 38,282 | -27.1% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 39,622 | -24.5% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 41,009 | -21.9% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 42,445 | -19.1% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 43,931 | -16.3% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 45,469 | -13.4% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 47,060 | -10.3% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 48,708 | -7.2% |
| 0.80 | High risk | 50,413 | -3.9% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 52,178 | -0.6% ◄ current |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 54,005 | +2.9% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 55,895 | +6.5% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 57,852 | +10.2% |
As of 2026-07-31, Dow Jones (DJIA) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.859 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Extreme high risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.859 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Dow Jones is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.13× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Dow Jones's risk level is currently 0.859 (Extreme high risk).