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As of 2026-10-16, CycleBottom rates Dow Jones (DJIA) at a risk level of 0.793 on a 0–1 scale — High risk. Dow Jones is trading at 52,002 versus its 365-day moving average of 48,231 (1.08× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Dow Jones Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 30,145 | -42.0% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 31,199 | -40.0% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 32,290 | -37.9% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 33,419 | -35.7% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 34,588 | -33.5% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 35,797 | -31.2% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 37,049 | -28.8% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 38,344 | -26.3% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 39,685 | -23.7% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 41,072 | -21.0% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 42,508 | -18.3% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 43,994 | -15.4% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 45,533 | -12.4% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 47,125 | -9.4% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 48,772 | -6.2% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 50,478 | -2.9% |
| 0.80 | High risk | 52,242 | +0.5% ◄ current |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 54,069 | +4.0% |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 55,960 | +7.6% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 57,916 | +11.4% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 59,941 | +15.3% |
As of 2026-10-16, Dow Jones (DJIA) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.793 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "High risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.793 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Dow Jones is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.08× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Dow Jones's risk level is currently 0.793 (High risk).