As of 2026-06-18, CycleBottom rates Dow Jones (DJIA) at a risk level of 0.853 on a 0–1 scale — Extreme high risk. Dow Jones is trading at 51,565 versus its 365-day moving average of 45,903 (1.12× the average), which places it historically overvalued (distribution zone). Lower risk values mark historically cheaper, accumulation-friendly prices; higher values mark distribution territory. This is informational only and not financial advice.
| Risk | Zone | Dow Jones Price | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Extreme low risk | 28,664 | -44.4% |
| 0.05 | Extreme low risk | 29,669 | -42.5% |
| 0.10 | Extreme low risk | 30,708 | -40.4% |
| 0.15 | Low risk | 31,784 | -38.4% |
| 0.20 | Low risk | 32,897 | -36.2% |
| 0.25 | Low risk | 34,050 | -34.0% |
| 0.30 | Moderate-low risk | 35,242 | -31.7% |
| 0.35 | Moderate-low risk | 36,477 | -29.3% |
| 0.40 | Moderate-low risk | 37,755 | -26.8% |
| 0.45 | Neutral | 39,077 | -24.2% |
| 0.50 | Neutral | 40,446 | -21.6% |
| 0.55 | Moderate-high risk | 41,863 | -18.8% |
| 0.60 | Moderate-high risk | 43,330 | -16.0% |
| 0.65 | Moderate-high risk | 44,848 | -13.0% |
| 0.70 | High risk | 46,419 | -10.0% |
| 0.75 | High risk | 48,045 | -6.8% |
| 0.80 | High risk | 49,728 | -3.6% |
| 0.85 | Extreme high risk | 51,470 | -0.2% ◄ current |
| 0.90 | Extreme high risk | 53,273 | +3.3% |
| 0.95 | Extreme high risk | 55,139 | +6.9% |
| 1.00 | Extreme high risk | 57,071 | +10.7% |
As of 2026-06-18, Dow Jones (DJIA) has a CycleBottom risk level of 0.853 on a 0–1 scale, which is rated "Extreme high risk". The value is updated daily.
Based on its risk level of 0.853 (0 = cheapest, 1 = most expensive), Dow Jones is currently historically overvalued (distribution zone). It trades at 1.12× its 365-day moving average.
The risk metric takes the logarithmic deviation of price from its 365-day simple moving average, optionally applies a diminishing-returns adjustment, then normalizes the result to a 0–1 scale using cumulative min-max scaling. Values near 0 are historically cheap; values near 1 are historically expensive.
CycleBottom does not give buy or sell advice. A low risk level (below ~0.3) historically coincided with accumulation zones and a high risk level (above ~0.7) with distribution zones, but this metric is educational only and not financial advice. Dow Jones's risk level is currently 0.853 (Extreme high risk).